economics

 

The trade talks set to spark rand volatility

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The rand has held its ground over the past 24hrs, but markets are expected to react as we draw closer to the highly anticipated two-day US-China bilateral trade talks.

Officials from the two economic heavyweights resume the contentious talks amid a cloud of uncertainty as Beijing’s feathers have already been ruffled by tariffs that will take effect today.

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There are no major economic releases today other than SA CPI figures (10am); and the Trump administration finds itself entangled in a legal drama. Have a wonderful Wednesday.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 14.3872
GBP/ZAR 18.587
EUR/ZAR 16.6602
ZAR/JPY 7.683
CNY/ZAR 2.1008

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US vs CHINA … vs the rand!?

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The rand along with other EM currencies were casualties (yet again!) as the US vs China trade war tensions continue to escalate.

China vowed to fight until the end, warning the US of “arrogance” and “making a fool of itself”. US treasury yields edged lower as investors fled to safety. The rand depreciated 0.9% against the dollar opening at 13.44/USD this morning.

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Not much data out today but do keep an eye out for corporate earnings and trade development between the two big boys (US & China) and SA manufacturing data. Have a Terrific Tuesday!

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.3811
GBP/ZAR 17.3462
EUR/ZAR 15.4865
ZAR/JPY 8.3163
CNY/ZAR 1.9543Continue reading…

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Rand recovers from worst levels

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As we all unwound on Friday in readiness for the weekend, the rand staged a last minute recovery against the US dollar, euro and pound.

While high-impact data is in short supply at the start of this week, we all know it doesn’t take much to keep the currency market on its toes. The German IFO business confidence reports could have a modest impact on the EUR/ZAR exchange rate this morning, with improved sentiment potentially boosting the euro.

And there’s more confidence data on the cards tomorrow, this time from the US. Signs that consumers are in more upbeat frame of mind are generally good news for the US dollar, so the rand may start feeling the heat again if the report impresses.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.47
GBP/ZAR 17.86
EUR/ZAR 15.66
ZAR/JPY 8.06
CNY/ZAR 2.07
AUD/ZAR 10.00
CHF/ZAR 13.60
AED/ZAR 3.67
SGD/ZAR 9.92
NOK/ZAR
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Are things ‘back on the bus’

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It’s all aboard the Trumplomacy bus, as President Trump offered China an olive branch yesterday, renewing hope that a ‘trade ‘war’ could be avoided.

The news momentarily helped emerging market gains, before violence in the Middle East put the rand on the back foot. Back home, Minister Gordhan continued his purge of corrupt state owned entity officials, firing the remaining Transnet board members. Yesterday also spelled the end of the nationwide bus strike, hopefully some relief for our roads!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.4207
GBP/ZAR 16.797
EUR/ZAR 14.808
ZAR/JPY 8.862
CNY/ZAR 1.9514
AUD/ZAR 9.1668
CHF/ZAR 12.3654
AED/ZAR 3.3716
SGD/ZAR 9.2571
NOK/ZAR 1.551
EUR/USD 1.1924
GBP/USD 1.3525
GBP/EUR 1.1342

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indic
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Is this the beginning of the end!

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Trump announces US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal with plans to impose strict sanctions.

Uncertainty of global oil supplies grows as countries who continue business with Iran may be penalized and feel the burn. With oil prices on the rise, markets expect future inflation increases and see further support for future US Fed hikes. Are we set to see a third consecutive month of petrol price increases?

We’ll have to wait and see. Alongside other EM markets the rand opened weaker at 12.57/USD as markets try to make sense of Trumps decision. US inflation data out at 14h30 will be the only real highlight for the day. Cheers and have a wonderful Wednesday!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.6049
GBP/ZAR 17.0860
EUR/ZAR 14.9588
ZAR/JPY 8.6876
CNY/ZAR 1.9823
AUD/ZAR 9.3902
CHF/ZAR 12.5903
AED/ZAR 3.4377
SGD/ZAR 9.4088
NOK/ZAR 1.5562
EUR
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The Rand Losts Its Ground

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The rand lost ground yesterday as SA lost out to exemption from the US steel and aluminum import tariffs (25% and 10% respectively).

An increase in the oil price and a stronger dollar added to the rands demise. The tone of tonight’s Fed interest rate decision (20h00) is one to keep an eye on. Even though a hike is not expected, any hints to future interest rate hikes and/or US inflation forecasts could see the market react.

EU GDP and unemployment figures released today (11h00) is also one to keep a look out for. Have a great day!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.5989
GBP/ZAR 17.1505
EUR/ZAR 15.1303
ZAR/JPY 8.7198
CNY/ZAR 1.9818
AUD/ZAR 9.4657
CHF/ZAR 12.6592
AED/ZAR 3.4310
SGD/ZAR 9.4372
NOK/ZAR 1.5493
EUR/USD 1.2012
GBP/USD 1.3959
GBP/EUR 1.1437

All rates quoted are the interbank ra
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Things are going slow and steady

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The rand is stable as markets wait for significant news/data to find new direction.

Risk appetite has returned, but with continuous geo-political tensions, fears over a trade war and future Fed hikes, the local unit will most likely continue to trade in its current range. In global news:

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has revised SA’s growth outlook to 1.5% and 1.7% for 2018 and 2019 respectively (upwards from 0.9% for both years). Locally: March inflation and February retail sales figures are the highlights to keep an eye out for later today.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0404
GBP/ZAR 17.1930
EUR/ZAR 14.8744
ZAR/JPY 8.9165
CNY/ZAR 1.9144
AUD/ZAR 9.3279
CHF/ZAR 12.4262
AED/ZAR 3.2780
SGD/ZAR 9.1780
NOK/ZAR 1.5475
EUR/USD 1.2355
GBP/USD 1.4280
GBP/EUR 1.1558

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Is this Mission accomplished?

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The rand held its ground after the US, France and Britain launched a “successful” air strike against Syrian chemical facilities on Friday.

The dollar strengthened after markets were convinced that the strike was a once-off event, but global equity markets weakened and Brent Crude Oil reached its highest price since 2014 at 72 USD/barrel.

It’s a quiet week on the data calendar so markets will be keeping a close eye on further US/Syrian developments, with US Retail Sales figures (later today) and local inflation figures (Wednesday) the only other real highlights. Have a great week everyone!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0738
GBP/ZAR 17.202
EUR/ZAR 14.8962
ZAR/JPY 8.8823
CNY/ZAR 1.9207
AUD/ZAR 9.3787
CHF/ZAR 12.5432
AED/ZAR 3.2867
SGD/ZAR 9.2014
NOK/ZAR 1.5543
EUR/USD 1.2345
GBP/USD 1.4247
GBP/EUR 1.
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The rand continues to trade side-ways against the USD

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First up is US consumer price inflation, which is expected to come in around 2.4% (ahead of the 2% target and fuelling interest rate increase fears).

The US Fed is next, where March’s meeting minutes should provide insight into how many interest rates hikes markets can expect for 2018/19. On the note of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index (USD vs a basket of global currencies) has weakened by 14% since December 2016 (the date US started raising interest rates)… economists will have to try hard to spin a story to explain that one.

A big shout out to SA’s Commonwealth Games Team, bagging 21 medals already!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0419
GBP/ZAR 17.1049
EUR/ZAR 14.8965
ZAR/JPY 8.8868
CNY/ZAR 1.9156
AUD/ZAR 9.3285
CHF/ZAR 12.5541
AED/ZAR 3.2789
SGD/ZAR 9.2005
NOK/ZAR 1.5499
EUR/USD
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Trade wars between US and China continues

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US and China tensions continues to grab the headlines, despite disappointing US jobs data Friday.

The US created 103k jobs in March, a far cry from the expected 188k, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Emerging markets have recovered slightly, with the rand hugging 12/$. President Trump called China’s bluff over the weekend, threatening another $100bn in tariffs.

This week is relatively light on data, with US CPI on Wednesday the highlight. Look for US CPI at 2.4%, with emerging markets likely to take a knock if this is the case. Locally, we’ll be eyeing public sector wage negotiations, with Union demanding CPI + 3%. It will be interesting to see how President Ramaphosa handles this hot potato. Have a great week folks.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0409
GBP/ZAR 16.9866
EUR/ZAR 14.7793
ZAR/JPY 8.8940
CNY/ZAR 1.9080
AUD/ZAR 9.2384
CHF/ZA
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