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Rand’s downward spiral continues on SA recession

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Just like Groundhog day (without the nostalgia), it’s unfortunately more of the same for the local unit and economy.

SA’s 2nd quarter GDP was released at -0.7% yesterday, confirming the economy has entered a technical recession. The rand lost close on 3% as it touched 15.38/$, 17.80/€ and 19.76/£ (that’s no typo).

Only one question remains, where to from here? With trade war tension between the US and China set to intensify and weakness in EM currencies, dare we say things could get worse. US trade balance figures (14h30) and speeches from Fed members this evening will be the highlights for today.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 15.4379
GBP/ZAR 19.8228
EUR/ZAR 17.8647
ZAR/JPY 7.2228
CNY/ZAR 2.2569
AUD/ZAR 11.0810
CHF/ZAR 15.8415
AED/ZAR 4.2036
SGD/ZAR 11.1929
NOK/ZAR 1.8359
EUR/USD 1.1571
GBP/USD 1.2840Continue reading…

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Rand recovers from worst levels

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As we all unwound on Friday in readiness for the weekend, the rand staged a last minute recovery against the US dollar, euro and pound.

While high-impact data is in short supply at the start of this week, we all know it doesn’t take much to keep the currency market on its toes. The German IFO business confidence reports could have a modest impact on the EUR/ZAR exchange rate this morning, with improved sentiment potentially boosting the euro.

And there’s more confidence data on the cards tomorrow, this time from the US. Signs that consumers are in more upbeat frame of mind are generally good news for the US dollar, so the rand may start feeling the heat again if the report impresses.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.47
GBP/ZAR 17.86
EUR/ZAR 15.66
ZAR/JPY 8.06
CNY/ZAR 2.07
AUD/ZAR 10.00
CHF/ZAR 13.60
AED/ZAR 3.67
SGD/ZAR 9.92
NOK/ZAR
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The rand strengthened overnight

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The rand strengthened overnight as the dollar weakened amidst peace talks between the North and South Korean leaders.

Risk-on sentiment prevailed as a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula looks likely in the near future (no doubt president Trump will take credit for this). The market now shifts attention to the US Feds hiking plans and the China VS US “trade war”. The Feds interest rate decision is released Wednesday with no hike expected in May, but hints to a June hike will be what the market will be looking out for.

Other data to keep an eye on this week; SA Trade balance today (14h00), EU GDP and unemployment (Wednesday), US Trade balance and EU inflation (Thursday), and US jobs numbers (Friday). Have a great day and please note our office will be closed tomorrow as we celebrate the well-deserved, Workers Day Public holiday!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.4179
GBP/ZAR 17.0517
EUR/ZAR 15.0287
ZA
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New fears on the horizon

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China’s previously announced tariff on US products came into effect yesterday with more than 120 US products being affected.

The introduction of the 15% tariff could spark fresh fears of a trade war amongst global markets. On the topic of 15%, yesterday also saw the increase of VAT and with fuel levies set to be implemented tomorrow, consumers are set to be in the firing line.

It’s a quiet start to the week on the data front following the lengthy Easter weekend break. This weekend also saw the sad passing Winnie Madikizela-Mandela at the age of 81. Have a great week all.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8181
GBP/ZAR 16.6298
EUR/ZAR 14.5701
ZAR/JPY 8.9673
CNY/ZAR 1.8780
AUD/ZAR 9.1026
CHF/ZAR 12.3780
AED/ZAR 3.2180
SGD/ZAR 9.0165
NOK/ZAR 1.4984
EUR/USD 1.2332
GBP/USD 1.4078
GBP/EUR 1.1415

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is importa
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Forget the bark, Powell bites!

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US Fed chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish (very positive) testimony yesterday has sent the greenback on a mini-rally.

The dollar gained more than 1% against the majors as Powell expressed optimism that the US economy remains strong. Indications are that rates will continue to be hiked gradually, resulting in speculation that could see four hikes this year (unless the Donald has anything to say about that) with an additional two in 2019.

On the calendar today, SA trade balance (14h00) and US GDP figures (15h00) will be the highlights.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.7261
GBP/ZAR 16.2916
EUR/ZAR 14.3365
ZAR/JPY 9.1345
CNY/ZAR 1.8529
AUD/ZAR 9.1419
CHF/ZAR 12.4811
AED/ZAR 3.1926
SGD/ZAR 8.8502
NOK/ZAR 1.4882
EUR/USD 1.2235
GBP/USD 1.3908
GBP/EUR 1.1367

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctu
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SONA: Ticked, next-up: Budget – tick tock…

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By all accounts President Ramaphosa’s first address to the nation was a roaring success.

All eyes now shift to the 2018 Budget Speech set for Wednesday at 14:00. The rand’s reaction to SONA was muted, with markets waiting to see Wednesday’s balancing act. National Treasury’s focus will be on how to confront the ballooning budget deficit and government debt, amongst many other issues (with the short term goal being to avoid yet another credit rating downgrade).

A reaction from Moody’s is expected towards the end of the week with a significant USD/ZAR reaction anticipated (possibly in the rand’s favour). Have a great Monday!

Today’s Rate
USD/ZAR 11.6703
GBP/ZAR 16.3399
EUR/ZAR 14.4672
ZAR/JPY 9.137
CNY/ZAR 1.8385
AUD/ZAR 9.244
CHF/ZAR 12.5682
AED/ZAR 3.1808
SGD/ZAR 8.8955
NOK/ZAR 1.5009
EUR/USD 1.2399
GBP/USD 1.3998
GBP/EUR 1.1290

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishi
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SONA: Ticked, next-up: Budget – tick tock…

By all accounts President Ramaphosa’s first address to the nation was a roaring success.

All eyes now shift to the 2018 Budget Speech set for Wednesday at 14:00. The rand’s reaction to SONA was muted, with markets waiting to see Wednesday’s balancing act. National Treasury’s focus will be on how to confront the ballooning budget deficit and government debt, amongst many other issues (with the short term goal being to avoid yet another credit rating downgrade).
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Z-Day has arrived for Rand!

The countdown has begun as Zuma’s days as President appear to be numbered with the ANC NEC meeting later today.

After the long wait and numerous speculation “Patience” is still key. USD/ZAR opens below 12/$ as EM Markets remain strong regardless of the volatility in global stock markets.

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Rand recovers as US Stocks whiplash

The rand broke below 12/$ overnight as US stocks clawed back more than half their losses seen Monday.

The Zuma saga continues as today’s ANC NEC meeting along with the State of the Nation Address was postponed in order to give more time for talks between Zuma and Ramaphosa (Indicating Zuma may have one foot out “the shower” door!).
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