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Rand’s downward spiral continues on SA recession

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Just like Groundhog day (without the nostalgia), it’s unfortunately more of the same for the local unit and economy.

SA’s 2nd quarter GDP was released at -0.7% yesterday, confirming the economy has entered a technical recession. The rand lost close on 3% as it touched 15.38/$, 17.80/€ and 19.76/£ (that’s no typo).

Only one question remains, where to from here? With trade war tension between the US and China set to intensify and weakness in EM currencies, dare we say things could get worse. US trade balance figures (14h30) and speeches from Fed members this evening will be the highlights for today.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 15.4379
GBP/ZAR 19.8228
EUR/ZAR 17.8647
ZAR/JPY 7.2228
CNY/ZAR 2.2569
AUD/ZAR 11.0810
CHF/ZAR 15.8415
AED/ZAR 4.2036
SGD/ZAR 11.1929
NOK/ZAR 1.8359
EUR/USD 1.1571
GBP/USD 1.2840Continue reading…

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The trade talks set to spark rand volatility

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The rand has held its ground over the past 24hrs, but markets are expected to react as we draw closer to the highly anticipated two-day US-China bilateral trade talks.

Officials from the two economic heavyweights resume the contentious talks amid a cloud of uncertainty as Beijing’s feathers have already been ruffled by tariffs that will take effect today.

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There are no major economic releases today other than SA CPI figures (10am); and the Trump administration finds itself entangled in a legal drama. Have a wonderful Wednesday.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 14.3872
GBP/ZAR 18.587
EUR/ZAR 16.6602
ZAR/JPY 7.683
CNY/ZAR 2.1008

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Rand cracks under ‘perfect storm’

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The rand touched 14.75/$ yesterday after facing a barrage of negative news.

Turkey announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, Moody’s released a damning report on the state of SA’s economy (as did the SARB), ANC Chair Gwede Mantashe added fuel to investor fears surrounding property rights, SA’s retail sales for June hinted at a risk of recession and Africa’s largest company Naspers saw their share price plunge.

The rand has recovered some lost ground this morning, but further gains won’t come easily. On a positive note, SA looks set to conclude a deal with auto manufacturers in a boost for exports. We’ll be keeping a close eye on Turkey and trade wars again today, enjoy.

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Well well, the Dollar is down and the rand up!

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US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all $500bn worth of Chinese imports following China’s vow to fight until the end.

As trade tensions intensified the greenback lost ground, which saw EM currencies and the rand strengthen to close at 13.33/$ yesterday. Locally, the 2 day ANC Lekgotla meeting (7-8 August) is focusing on land expropriation and an economic stimulus package to create an enabling economy for investment.

There isn’t much data out for the rest of the week and we see the country celebrate National Women’s Day tomorrow (9th August). Have a Wonderful Wednesday!

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.3301
GBP/ZAR 17.2477
EUR/ZAR 15.4788
ZAR/JPY 8.3424
CNY/ZAR 1.9518
AUD/ZAR 9.8934
CHF/ZAR 13.3973
AED/ZAR 3.6289
SGD/ZAR 9.7689
NOK/ZAR 1.6266
EUR/USD 1.1614
GBP/USD 1.2938Continue reading…

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The rand takes the gap

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The rand was the 2nd best performing currency last week, taking advantage of a simmering trade war and China’s announcement of a stimulus package to boost its economy (tax cuts).

Last week’s gains demonstrated how volatile the rand is, and it wouldn’t take much for the local unit to reverse gains. The big news for the week is Friday’s US jobs data, with Tuesday’s SA trade balance and a host of local data releases providing insight into SA’s probable Q2 GDP.

We’ll also keep an eye on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy update, and of course any update on the Trade War front. Our Zim friends go to the polls today, in their first election without Uncle Bob; we wish our neighbours free and fair elections.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.2019
GBP/ZAR 17.3061
EUR/ZAR 15.3847
ZAR/JPY 8.4155
CNY/ZAR 1.9360
AUD/ZAR 9.7646
CHF/ZAR 13.2622
AED/
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It’s still all about the US

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The local unit scored somewhat of a consolation goal on Friday (sorry Argentina fans), as global equities and EM markets ended the week stronger.

Eyes are still on the US though as June Fed minutes and job numbers will be out later this week. The data, coupled with escalating trade tensions between the US and China, could provide more volatility than the Spain vs. Russia penalty shootout.

On local shores, consumers are set to be hit with another sucker punch as the price of petrol is set to increase by 26c/litre. Combine this with higher municipal rates, taxes and electricity tariffs and you’ve got yourself an already overworked wallet. Have a great week and batten down the hatches if you’re in the Cape!

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.83
GBP/ZAR 18.21
EUR/ZAR 16.09
ZAR/JPY 7.99
CNY/ZAR 2.07
AUD/ZAR 10.19
CHF/ZAR 13.95
AED/ZAR 3.76
SGD
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Rand creeps lower vs. EUR, USD and GBP

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While there’s been plenty of World Cup drama this week (mostly focused on VAR controversy) the rand has been having a less exciting few days.

But while ZAR hasn’t experienced a significant shift since the weekend, it has still edged lower against the US dollar, euro and pound.

Today’s high-profile US reports, including the nation’s trade balance and durable goods orders data, could have a modest impact on the rand, with upbeat data potentially undermining the emerging-market currency.

But we’ll also be looking ahead to tomorrow and the first South African data of the week. SA’s producer price index is expected to come in at 0.4% on the month and 4.3% on the year.

Latest Rates
USD/ZAR 13.54
GBP/ZAR 17.93
EUR/ZAR 15.80
ZAR/JPY 8.11
CNY/ZAR 2.05
AUD/ZAR 10.01
CHF/ZAR 13.67
AED/ZAR 3.68
SGD/ZAR 9.94
NOK/ZAR 1.
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Rand recovers from worst levels

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As we all unwound on Friday in readiness for the weekend, the rand staged a last minute recovery against the US dollar, euro and pound.

While high-impact data is in short supply at the start of this week, we all know it doesn’t take much to keep the currency market on its toes. The German IFO business confidence reports could have a modest impact on the EUR/ZAR exchange rate this morning, with improved sentiment potentially boosting the euro.

And there’s more confidence data on the cards tomorrow, this time from the US. Signs that consumers are in more upbeat frame of mind are generally good news for the US dollar, so the rand may start feeling the heat again if the report impresses.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.47
GBP/ZAR 17.86
EUR/ZAR 15.66
ZAR/JPY 8.06
CNY/ZAR 2.07
AUD/ZAR 10.00
CHF/ZAR 13.60
AED/ZAR 3.67
SGD/ZAR 9.92
NOK/ZAR
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ZAR extends losses against the US dollar

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The past few months certainly haven’t been kind to the rand, with the emerging-market currency tumbling 13.6% against the US dollar so far this quarter.

But it appears that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) won’t be taking any sudden action to bolster the currency.

Yesterday SARB Deputy Governor Kuben Naidoo was quoted as saying: ‘If there is persistence in that currency weakness and it feeds into other prices, we would have to act. It’s not an immediate response, we will wait – because the economy is weak we can afford to wait and see. That may be a few months, maybe a few quarters’.

Today’s high-profile South African inflation report is the main news to focus on, with an unexpected result having the potential to spark yet more rand volatility.

Latest Rates

USD/ZAR 13.77
GBP/ZAR 18.10
EUR/ZAR 15.89
ZAR/JPY 8.01
CNY/ZAR 2.11
AUD/ZAR 10.11
CHF
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The markets troughs another tantrum

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The rand lost 2% against the USD yesterday, as markets had another ‘taper tantrum’.

March US retail sales were revised upwards to 0.8% (Month on month), raising fears that the US Fed may indeed raise rates a further 0.5% in 2018. Yawn, I’m sure we’re not the only ones bored of this story again?

Back home, SA’s unemployment rate remained stable at 26.7% (another shocker). Oil is nearing $80/barrel, a rather negative sign for the rand and motorists alike. Today’s attention shifts to SA retail sales and US manufacturing data, enjoy!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.5420
GBP/ZAR 16.9276
EUR/ZAR 14.8462
ZAR/JPY 8.9777
CNY/ZAR 1.9685
AUD/ZAR 9.3848
CHF/ZAR 12.3877
AED/ZAR 3.151
SGD/ZAR 9.0722
NOK/ZAR 1.5476
EUR/USD 1.1839
GBP/USD 1.3501
GBP/EUR 1.1405

All rates quoted are the inte
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