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The rand strengthened overnight

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The rand strengthened overnight as the dollar weakened amidst peace talks between the North and South Korean leaders.

Risk-on sentiment prevailed as a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula looks likely in the near future (no doubt president Trump will take credit for this). The market now shifts attention to the US Feds hiking plans and the China VS US “trade war”. The Feds interest rate decision is released Wednesday with no hike expected in May, but hints to a June hike will be what the market will be looking out for.

Other data to keep an eye on this week; SA Trade balance today (14h00), EU GDP and unemployment (Wednesday), US Trade balance and EU inflation (Thursday), and US jobs numbers (Friday). Have a great day and please note our office will be closed tomorrow as we celebrate the well-deserved, Workers Day Public holiday!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.4179
GBP/ZAR 17.0517
EUR/ZAR 15.0287
ZA
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Spike in “Black gold” rally stirs inflation fears.

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The recent spike in oil prices could fuel global inflationary pressures, which has bolstered the USD to a 2 week high.

Rising US bond yields and easing concerns over geopolitical risks has also positively weighed on the greenback as it open’s the day above 12.1/USD. Progress in US-China trade negotiations & North Korea to suspend its nuclear ambitions to focus on economic growth and peace, have somewhat eased global markets.

It’s a jam packed week ahead with US GDP figures; ECB monetary policy meeting; local consumer confidence and March inflation figures the highlights. Have a fantastic week folks…

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.1924
GBP/ZAR 17.077
EUR/ZAR 14.9663
ZAR/JPY 8.842
CNY/ZAR 1.93715
AUD/ZAR 9.3347
CHF/ZAR 12.5011
AED/ZAR 3.3049
SGD/ZAR 9.2806
NOK/ZAR 1.5528
EUR/USD 1.227
GBP/USD 1.3997
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Things are going slow and steady

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The rand is stable as markets wait for significant news/data to find new direction.

Risk appetite has returned, but with continuous geo-political tensions, fears over a trade war and future Fed hikes, the local unit will most likely continue to trade in its current range. In global news:

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has revised SA’s growth outlook to 1.5% and 1.7% for 2018 and 2019 respectively (upwards from 0.9% for both years). Locally: March inflation and February retail sales figures are the highlights to keep an eye out for later today.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0404
GBP/ZAR 17.1930
EUR/ZAR 14.8744
ZAR/JPY 8.9165
CNY/ZAR 1.9144
AUD/ZAR 9.3279
CHF/ZAR 12.4262
AED/ZAR 3.2780
SGD/ZAR 9.1780
NOK/ZAR 1.5475
EUR/USD 1.2355
GBP/USD 1.4280
GBP/EUR 1.1558

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The rand continues to trade side-ways against the USD

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First up is US consumer price inflation, which is expected to come in around 2.4% (ahead of the 2% target and fuelling interest rate increase fears).

The US Fed is next, where March’s meeting minutes should provide insight into how many interest rates hikes markets can expect for 2018/19. On the note of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index (USD vs a basket of global currencies) has weakened by 14% since December 2016 (the date US started raising interest rates)… economists will have to try hard to spin a story to explain that one.

A big shout out to SA’s Commonwealth Games Team, bagging 21 medals already!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0419
GBP/ZAR 17.1049
EUR/ZAR 14.8965
ZAR/JPY 8.8868
CNY/ZAR 1.9156
AUD/ZAR 9.3285
CHF/ZAR 12.5541
AED/ZAR 3.2789
SGD/ZAR 9.2005
NOK/ZAR 1.5499
EUR/USD
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Trade wars between US and China continues

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US and China tensions continues to grab the headlines, despite disappointing US jobs data Friday.

The US created 103k jobs in March, a far cry from the expected 188k, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Emerging markets have recovered slightly, with the rand hugging 12/$. President Trump called China’s bluff over the weekend, threatening another $100bn in tariffs.

This week is relatively light on data, with US CPI on Wednesday the highlight. Look for US CPI at 2.4%, with emerging markets likely to take a knock if this is the case. Locally, we’ll be eyeing public sector wage negotiations, with Union demanding CPI + 3%. It will be interesting to see how President Ramaphosa handles this hot potato. Have a great week folks.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0409
GBP/ZAR 16.9866
EUR/ZAR 14.7793
ZAR/JPY 8.8940
CNY/ZAR 1.9080
AUD/ZAR 9.2384
CHF/ZA
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Tit for tat:- Tariff increase of Chinese import products

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Following China’s 15% tariff on US products, ‘Merica hit back yesterday laying out plans to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese import products.

The tariff could see more than 1300 Chinese imports being effected totalling more than $50 billion. In response, China said it plans to implement the same trade measures against the US.

The result could see higher US product prices which will lead to the Fed hiking rates more aggressively in the coming years (not good news for the rand). On the calendar today, EU inflation figures are out at 11h00.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8541
GBP/ZAR 16.6787
EUR/ZAR 14.5459
ZAR/JPY 8.9999
CNY/ZAR 1.8817
AUD/ZAR 9.1162
CHF/ZAR 12.3621
AED/ZAR 3.2267
SGD/ZAR 9.0281
NOK/ZAR 1.5115
EUR/USD 1.2269
GBP/USD 1.4067
GBP/EUR 1.1465

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange
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New fears on the horizon

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China’s previously announced tariff on US products came into effect yesterday with more than 120 US products being affected.

The introduction of the 15% tariff could spark fresh fears of a trade war amongst global markets. On the topic of 15%, yesterday also saw the increase of VAT and with fuel levies set to be implemented tomorrow, consumers are set to be in the firing line.

It’s a quiet start to the week on the data front following the lengthy Easter weekend break. This weekend also saw the sad passing Winnie Madikizela-Mandela at the age of 81. Have a great week all.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8181
GBP/ZAR 16.6298
EUR/ZAR 14.5701
ZAR/JPY 8.9673
CNY/ZAR 1.8780
AUD/ZAR 9.1026
CHF/ZAR 12.3780
AED/ZAR 3.2180
SGD/ZAR 9.0165
NOK/ZAR 1.4984
EUR/USD 1.2332
GBP/USD 1.4078
GBP/EUR 1.1415

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is importa
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Credit Ratings Agency Moody’s shows us the light on Friday night

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Friday night ended on a high, with no dreaded downgrade from credit ratings agency Moody’s.

The announcement was greatly welcomed as it was supported with the outlook being changed to stable, which looks to restore some lost confidence in South Africa. The change in political leadership and a clear plan for addressing fiscal pressures (2018 Budget) were some of the factors that influenced Moody’s decision.

The result sees the rand open at 11.75/$, with room for further gains possible. Over in “Trump-land”, pressure still mounts as the rise in trade tariffs indicates negative impact to global growth. Have a great Monday!

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The Trade War heats up …Tine to Take Cover?

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The rand is stronger this morning as the US and China Trade war heats up.

“The Donald” announced plans to slap certain Chinese imports with a 25% tariff, which was met with “fire and fury” and a 15% – 25% tariff on certain US imports by China. The US treasury dropped another “bomb” as they plan to restrict Chinese investments in certain US sectors.

Asian and US equities sank as hits to global growth are expected. Across the pond, the bank of England left interest rates unchanged, but hinted a future increase might be in play. SA awaits Moody’s credit rating decision later tonight with the rainbow nation in a great position to dodge the dreaded downgrade. Have a great day and an “Epic” weekend!

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Resolute rand – The rand remains firm

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The rand remains firm and opens the day below 11.80/$, spurred on by pro-rand events which transpired yesterday.

SA’s January manufacturing output rose by 2.5%, supporting the expectation that the domestic economy is gaining momentum. US President Trump dropped an administrative bombshell as he dismissed the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
This triggered a dollar sell-off with Wall Street taking a knock.

Dollar weakness was cushioned by an acceleration in US inflation, this resulted in speculation that the Fed will raise rates at a gradual pace. Sterling soared to a 2 week high as UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond announced a polished fiscal policy update highlighting on economic growth forecast and the budget. On the data calendar today, ECB President Draghi takes to the podium and US retail figures will be released. Have a great day.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.7851
GBP/ZAR 16.468
EUR/ZAR 14.6108
ZAR/JPY 9.055
CNY/ZAR 1
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