economic

 

Is there any more good news on it’s way with SARB meeting today?

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Local markets shift focus to the SARB’s MPC meeting today which could confirm a possible interest rate cut.

Speculation is that Governor Lesetja Kganyago could cut the interest rate by 25bps. Following Moody’s decision to change SA’s outlook to stable, it looks like that the SARB will follow up with some more positive news, this time for consumers with a “lil’ debt”.

Despite SA being a “small fish” Moody’s is said to start affirming our improved ratings. Globally: the US and China have agreed to negotiations to finalize a trade deal therefore minimizing a potential trade war. Have a great Wednesday!
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Credit Ratings Agency Moody’s shows us the light on Friday night

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Friday night ended on a high, with no dreaded downgrade from credit ratings agency Moody’s.

The announcement was greatly welcomed as it was supported with the outlook being changed to stable, which looks to restore some lost confidence in South Africa. The change in political leadership and a clear plan for addressing fiscal pressures (2018 Budget) were some of the factors that influenced Moody’s decision.

The result sees the rand open at 11.75/$, with room for further gains possible. Over in “Trump-land”, pressure still mounts as the rise in trade tariffs indicates negative impact to global growth. Have a great Monday!

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The Trade War heats up …Tine to Take Cover?

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The rand is stronger this morning as the US and China Trade war heats up.

“The Donald” announced plans to slap certain Chinese imports with a 25% tariff, which was met with “fire and fury” and a 15% – 25% tariff on certain US imports by China. The US treasury dropped another “bomb” as they plan to restrict Chinese investments in certain US sectors.

Asian and US equities sank as hits to global growth are expected. Across the pond, the bank of England left interest rates unchanged, but hinted a future increase might be in play. SA awaits Moody’s credit rating decision later tonight with the rainbow nation in a great position to dodge the dreaded downgrade. Have a great day and an “Epic” weekend!

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Jobs data boosts the dollar

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The dollar rebounded late Friday on news of higher-than-expected US jobs growth in February.

Hourly wages moderated, easing inflation fears and concerns that the US Fed would hike interest rates 4 times this year.

An interesting week lies ahead on the data calendar, as Russia will be in the spotlight regarding the US trade policy; SA manufacturing, EU Q4 jobs data, UK fiscal policy update and US retail sales tomorrow; ECB president’s speech on Wednesday; SA local mining and as well as the Business Confidence Index on Thursday, and inflation figures out on Friday. Have a great week!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8224
GBP/ZAR 16.389
EUR/ZAR 14.5698
ZAR/JPY 9.04
CNY/ZAR 1.7891
AUD/ZAR 9.3041
CHF/ZAR 12.4591
AED/ZAR 3.2217
SGD/ZAR 8.9841
NOK/ZAR 1.5249
EUR/USD 1.2319
GBP/USD 1.38559
GBP/EUR 1.1248

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It
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Local economy showing positive signs

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The rand is taking full advantage of the weaker dollar as it opens at 11.83/$ this morning.

Investors returned to buying emerging market currencies (as opposed to the USD) after Trump’s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, announced his resignation yesterday. To add to dollar losses, North Korea have reportedly ended nuclear weapons testing for the time being (following positive talks with South Korea).

Local Q4 GDP figures released yesterday supported rand gains, as economic growth increased by 3.1% in the final quarter of 2017, with an overall growth of 1.3% for the year. Today’s highlights: The US Fed’s Beige Book and EUR Q4 GDP figures are released. Happy hump day!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8145
GBP/ZAR 16.4149
EUR/ZAR 14.6800
ZAR/JPY 8.9432
CNY/ZAR 1.8683
AUD/ZAR 9.2208
CHF/ZAR 12.6035
AED/ZAR 3.2170
SGD/ZAR 8.9792
NOK/ZAR 1.5161
EUR/USD 1.2422
GBP/USD 1.3888
GBP/EUR 1.1182

All rates quoted a
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Trade war fears ease

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The rand opens at 11.83/$ after emerging market currencies recovered overnight thanks to dollar weakness.

The greenback weakened after Pres. Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on steel/aluminium imports took a big blow, with Democrats and Republicans being opposed to the idea (meaning the plan probably won’t become policy and a global trade war less likely).

Markets will keep a close eye on SA Q4 GDP released at 11.30am this morning as this will have a big role to play in Moody’s credit rating decision on the 23rd of March. Expectation are for economic growth to have moderated to 1.7% from 2% in Q3. Have an awesome Tuesday!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8341
GBP/ZAR 16.3599
EUR/ZAR 14.6025
ZAR/JPY 8.9784
CNY/ZAR 1.8644
AUD/ZAR 9.1902
CHF/ZAR 12.5874
AED/ZAR 3.2223
SGD/ZAR 8.9707
NOK/ZAR 1.5127
EUR/USD 1.2338
GBP/USD 1.3827
GBP/EUR 1.1205

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing
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Forget the bark, Powell bites!

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US Fed chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish (very positive) testimony yesterday has sent the greenback on a mini-rally.

The dollar gained more than 1% against the majors as Powell expressed optimism that the US economy remains strong. Indications are that rates will continue to be hiked gradually, resulting in speculation that could see four hikes this year (unless the Donald has anything to say about that) with an additional two in 2019.

On the calendar today, SA trade balance (14h00) and US GDP figures (15h00) will be the highlights.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.7261
GBP/ZAR 16.2916
EUR/ZAR 14.3365
ZAR/JPY 9.1345
CNY/ZAR 1.8529
AUD/ZAR 9.1419
CHF/ZAR 12.4811
AED/ZAR 3.1926
SGD/ZAR 8.8502
NOK/ZAR 1.4882
EUR/USD 1.2235
GBP/USD 1.3908
GBP/EUR 1.1367

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctu
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Rand recovers as US Stocks whiplash

The rand broke below 12/$ overnight as US stocks clawed back more than half their losses seen Monday.

The Zuma saga continues as today’s ANC NEC meeting along with the State of the Nation Address was postponed in order to give more time for talks between Zuma and Ramaphosa (Indicating Zuma may have one foot out “the shower” door!).
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