dollar

 

Trade wars between US and China continues

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US and China tensions continues to grab the headlines, despite disappointing US jobs data Friday.

The US created 103k jobs in March, a far cry from the expected 188k, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Emerging markets have recovered slightly, with the rand hugging 12/$. President Trump called China’s bluff over the weekend, threatening another $100bn in tariffs.

This week is relatively light on data, with US CPI on Wednesday the highlight. Look for US CPI at 2.4%, with emerging markets likely to take a knock if this is the case. Locally, we’ll be eyeing public sector wage negotiations, with Union demanding CPI + 3%. It will be interesting to see how President Ramaphosa handles this hot potato. Have a great week folks.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 12.0409
GBP/ZAR 16.9866
EUR/ZAR 14.7793
ZAR/JPY 8.8940
CNY/ZAR 1.9080
AUD/ZAR 9.2384
CHF/ZA
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Tit for tat:- Tariff increase of Chinese import products

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Following China’s 15% tariff on US products, ‘Merica hit back yesterday laying out plans to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese import products.

The tariff could see more than 1300 Chinese imports being effected totalling more than $50 billion. In response, China said it plans to implement the same trade measures against the US.

The result could see higher US product prices which will lead to the Fed hiking rates more aggressively in the coming years (not good news for the rand). On the calendar today, EU inflation figures are out at 11h00.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8541
GBP/ZAR 16.6787
EUR/ZAR 14.5459
ZAR/JPY 8.9999
CNY/ZAR 1.8817
AUD/ZAR 9.1162
CHF/ZAR 12.3621
AED/ZAR 3.2267
SGD/ZAR 9.0281
NOK/ZAR 1.5115
EUR/USD 1.2269
GBP/USD 1.4067
GBP/EUR 1.1465

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange
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New fears on the horizon

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China’s previously announced tariff on US products came into effect yesterday with more than 120 US products being affected.

The introduction of the 15% tariff could spark fresh fears of a trade war amongst global markets. On the topic of 15%, yesterday also saw the increase of VAT and with fuel levies set to be implemented tomorrow, consumers are set to be in the firing line.

It’s a quiet start to the week on the data front following the lengthy Easter weekend break. This weekend also saw the sad passing Winnie Madikizela-Mandela at the age of 81. Have a great week all.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8181
GBP/ZAR 16.6298
EUR/ZAR 14.5701
ZAR/JPY 8.9673
CNY/ZAR 1.8780
AUD/ZAR 9.1026
CHF/ZAR 12.3780
AED/ZAR 3.2180
SGD/ZAR 9.0165
NOK/ZAR 1.4984
EUR/USD 1.2332
GBP/USD 1.4078
GBP/EUR 1.1415

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It is importa
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Is there any more good news on it’s way with SARB meeting today?

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Local markets shift focus to the SARB’s MPC meeting today which could confirm a possible interest rate cut.

Speculation is that Governor Lesetja Kganyago could cut the interest rate by 25bps. Following Moody’s decision to change SA’s outlook to stable, it looks like that the SARB will follow up with some more positive news, this time for consumers with a “lil’ debt”.

Despite SA being a “small fish” Moody’s is said to start affirming our improved ratings. Globally: the US and China have agreed to negotiations to finalize a trade deal therefore minimizing a potential trade war. Have a great Wednesday!
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Credit Ratings Agency Moody’s shows us the light on Friday night

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Friday night ended on a high, with no dreaded downgrade from credit ratings agency Moody’s.

The announcement was greatly welcomed as it was supported with the outlook being changed to stable, which looks to restore some lost confidence in South Africa. The change in political leadership and a clear plan for addressing fiscal pressures (2018 Budget) were some of the factors that influenced Moody’s decision.

The result sees the rand open at 11.75/$, with room for further gains possible. Over in “Trump-land”, pressure still mounts as the rise in trade tariffs indicates negative impact to global growth. Have a great Monday!

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The Trade War heats up …Tine to Take Cover?

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The rand is stronger this morning as the US and China Trade war heats up.

“The Donald” announced plans to slap certain Chinese imports with a 25% tariff, which was met with “fire and fury” and a 15% – 25% tariff on certain US imports by China. The US treasury dropped another “bomb” as they plan to restrict Chinese investments in certain US sectors.

Asian and US equities sank as hits to global growth are expected. Across the pond, the bank of England left interest rates unchanged, but hinted a future increase might be in play. SA awaits Moody’s credit rating decision later tonight with the rainbow nation in a great position to dodge the dreaded downgrade. Have a great day and an “Epic” weekend!

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Resolute rand – The rand remains firm

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The rand remains firm and opens the day below 11.80/$, spurred on by pro-rand events which transpired yesterday.

SA’s January manufacturing output rose by 2.5%, supporting the expectation that the domestic economy is gaining momentum. US President Trump dropped an administrative bombshell as he dismissed the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
This triggered a dollar sell-off with Wall Street taking a knock.

Dollar weakness was cushioned by an acceleration in US inflation, this resulted in speculation that the Fed will raise rates at a gradual pace. Sterling soared to a 2 week high as UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond announced a polished fiscal policy update highlighting on economic growth forecast and the budget. On the data calendar today, ECB President Draghi takes to the podium and US retail figures will be released. Have a great day.

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.7851
GBP/ZAR 16.468
EUR/ZAR 14.6108
ZAR/JPY 9.055
CNY/ZAR 1
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Jobs data boosts the dollar

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The dollar rebounded late Friday on news of higher-than-expected US jobs growth in February.

Hourly wages moderated, easing inflation fears and concerns that the US Fed would hike interest rates 4 times this year.

An interesting week lies ahead on the data calendar, as Russia will be in the spotlight regarding the US trade policy; SA manufacturing, EU Q4 jobs data, UK fiscal policy update and US retail sales tomorrow; ECB president’s speech on Wednesday; SA local mining and as well as the Business Confidence Index on Thursday, and inflation figures out on Friday. Have a great week!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8224
GBP/ZAR 16.389
EUR/ZAR 14.5698
ZAR/JPY 9.04
CNY/ZAR 1.7891
AUD/ZAR 9.3041
CHF/ZAR 12.4591
AED/ZAR 3.2217
SGD/ZAR 8.9841
NOK/ZAR 1.5249
EUR/USD 1.2319
GBP/USD 1.38559
GBP/EUR 1.1248

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing and shown for indicative purposes only. It
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Local economy showing positive signs

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The rand is taking full advantage of the weaker dollar as it opens at 11.83/$ this morning.

Investors returned to buying emerging market currencies (as opposed to the USD) after Trump’s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, announced his resignation yesterday. To add to dollar losses, North Korea have reportedly ended nuclear weapons testing for the time being (following positive talks with South Korea).

Local Q4 GDP figures released yesterday supported rand gains, as economic growth increased by 3.1% in the final quarter of 2017, with an overall growth of 1.3% for the year. Today’s highlights: The US Fed’s Beige Book and EUR Q4 GDP figures are released. Happy hump day!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8145
GBP/ZAR 16.4149
EUR/ZAR 14.6800
ZAR/JPY 8.9432
CNY/ZAR 1.8683
AUD/ZAR 9.2208
CHF/ZAR 12.6035
AED/ZAR 3.2170
SGD/ZAR 8.9792
NOK/ZAR 1.5161
EUR/USD 1.2422
GBP/USD 1.3888
GBP/EUR 1.1182

All rates quoted a
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Trade war fears ease

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The rand opens at 11.83/$ after emerging market currencies recovered overnight thanks to dollar weakness.

The greenback weakened after Pres. Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on steel/aluminium imports took a big blow, with Democrats and Republicans being opposed to the idea (meaning the plan probably won’t become policy and a global trade war less likely).

Markets will keep a close eye on SA Q4 GDP released at 11.30am this morning as this will have a big role to play in Moody’s credit rating decision on the 23rd of March. Expectation are for economic growth to have moderated to 1.7% from 2% in Q3. Have an awesome Tuesday!

Today’s Rate

USD/ZAR 11.8341
GBP/ZAR 16.3599
EUR/ZAR 14.6025
ZAR/JPY 8.9784
CNY/ZAR 1.8644
AUD/ZAR 9.1902
CHF/ZAR 12.5874
AED/ZAR 3.2223
SGD/ZAR 8.9707
NOK/ZAR 1.5127
EUR/USD 1.2338
GBP/USD 1.3827
GBP/EUR 1.1205

All rates quoted are the interbank rates at time of publishing
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